ScienceBeginner's trailInitiation to operational ocean forecasting

A real-time forecasting system

The Mercator forecasting systems use a set of complex software packages. These applications fit into a computerized production line which starts with the acquisition of data from atmospheric forcing, satellite and in situ measurements, the 'ingestion' (assimilation) of this data into ocean simulation models, and then the output and distribution of 'packaged' results in the form of maps, text bulletins or digital files to users.

The specificity of Mercator systems is that they are operational. In other words that they work each week no matter what happens. Since some of our users (who are also government departments which finance and monitor our work ) are in charge of monitoring pollution, safety at sea or meteorological forecasting for which Mercator systems are useful if not indispensable.

As output from these systems, we get a three-dimensional description of the ocean, both analysed and forecast.

The principal of numerical forecasting is to start with an initial state known as the ocean analyse, which leads to the forecast of a future state.

Analysis corresponds to the state of the ocean calculated by the Mercator system based on the:

• numerical model
• the atmospheric forcing
• the assimilation of measured data, during the 2 weeks prior to the date of analysis.

An analysis is made each Wednesday.

This describes the ocean in the future. It is based on the numerical ocean model and on forcing fields predicted by the numerical weather forecasting models.

In Mercator systems, forecasts are for 2 weeks, as of the last analysis.

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